Russia-Ukraine history –
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be traced all the way back to the days of World War I. At the time, Russia was governed by Tsar Nicholas II, who ruled the then-autocratic nation with an iron fist. Russia had already begun to feel the rumblings of protest and discontent from its growing peasant population, but these tensions didn’t boil over until the midst of World War I, sparking the Russian Revolution and thereby causing Russia to bow out of the war.
The first half of the Revolution forced the abdication of the Tsar, and eventually, after much violence and upheaval, facilitated the rise of socialism in Russia. After the latter half of the Revolution – now known as the Bolshevik Revolution, the Bolshevik Party took control of the Russian government, essentially establishing a dictatorship.
After many more years of conflict, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was finally formed in 1922. The USSR was composed of 15 distinct bodies, or Soviet Socialist Republics (SSR.s), including modern-day Russia, Georgia, and Ukraine.
At the end of World War II and about 20 years after the formation of the USSR (or the Soviet Union), the world was thrown into yet another conflict: the Cold War. The Cold War directly pitted the United States and the Soviet Union against each other in a dangerous dance of proxy wars and barely veiled threats.
Europe was divided into two spheres of influence, with the U.S. laying claim to the western half and the Soviet Union laying claim to the eastern half. As the Cold War progressed, the reach of the U.S. and capitalism grew more and more pervasive, much to the Soviet Union’s behest, as they struggled to regain their footing and control of key Eastern European countries.
Finally, with the end of the Cold War in 1991, the Soviet Union started to crumble, ceasing to be the union of the SSRs it once was, and the republics that made up the USSR, like Georgia and Crimea, began to form their own independent nations, sometimes peacefully, sometimes more… violently.
In the aftermath of the Cold War, the global power balance shifted to favor the U.S. and western nations, setting Russian leaders on edge. This imbalance of power was ultimately what proved to fuel Russian ambitions to annex Crimea.
After the end of the Maidan Revolution in late February 2014, the acting government of Ukraine sought to strengthen Ukraine-Europe relations through an association agreement with the E.U. Shortly after the announcement of this intended agreement, the Crimean peninsula was inundated by armed men, who Russian President Vladimir Putin later admitted were Russian soldiers. In a matter of weeks, Russian soldiers had taken control of the peninsula and the Crimean Supreme Council instituted a referendum to determine the future: be annexed by Russia or become an essentially autonomous nation.
Immediately after the referendum, authorities cited an 83% voter turnout with almost 97% voting in favor of Russian annexation, despite the strong minority (almost 40%) of Crimean Tatars and ethnic Ukraninans living in the region. Regardless, Russian and Crimean officials signed a treaty that officially made Crimea a part of Russia, ratified by Putin on March 18 of 2008.
Two months after the original referendum, a report leaked from Putin’s Human Rights Council showed that turnout was only 30% with approximately 50% of that 30% voting in favor of Russian annexation. To this day, much of the international community, including Ukraine itself and the U.S, does not recognize Russian annexation of Crimea and views the peninsula as part of Ukraine.
Tuesday marked three years since the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This week’s edition of International Insight will dig into the origin and events of the conflict and examine the potential for resolution in the current political context.
Weeks after the conflict in Crimea, yet another uprising unfolded in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and separatists allegedly backed by Russia and the Kremlin. The crisis was resolved by a peace deal, known as the 2015 Minsk agreement, which required Ukraine to allow regions in favor of annexation or separation greater autonomy and forbade it from joining NATO.
Yet, the deal was never fully implemented. After incumbent Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s election in 2019, Putin sought to take another stab at the deal and implement it in its full scope, but Zelenskyy vehemently blocked Russia’s efforts.
Today, three years down the line, Putin’s hope for a quick annexation seems to have waned, but his desire for Russian control of Ukraine has not.
And three years of war has undoubtedly had an impact in our world. Estimates suggest that approximately 80,000 Ukranians – both civilians and combatants – have been killed, with 400,000 wounded. On the other hand, Russia has seen over 800,000 combatants alone suffer serious injuries or even die.
From an economic perspective, the U.S. has provided $65.9 billion in aid to Ukraine since the invasion in 2022 or a total of $69.2 billion since the 2014 invasion, while reconstruction for Ukraine is estimated to cost about $524 billion in the next 10 years. Meanwhile, North Korea has been providing military aid to Russia.
What now? –
When it comes to efforts to create peace in the region, Trump’s administration, yet again, has redefined the conversation.
During the Biden administration – which saw the outbreak and majority of the conflict unfold, the White House’s policy was strictly “nothing about Ukraine, without Ukraine” when it came to peace talks. In addition, the Biden administration focused on levying heavy sanctions and isolating Russia.
Trump’s administration seems to be taking a different tack. Rather than distance Russia, Trump has chosen to work closely with Putin in an attempt to end the war. This manifested in recent talks hosted in Saudi Arabia, which both Trump and Putin later spoke about in a positive light.
Additionally, the U.S. and Ukraine are set to sign a new deal regarding natural resources, efforts to rebuild from the war, and Ukrainian security.
On the flip side, Trump’s recent statements surrounding the conflict have pointed to Ukraine as the chief aggressor and indicate a resolution that is perhaps more beneficial to Moscow than Kyiv.The U.S. also voted against a UN resolution that condemned Russia’s actions in the war against Ukraine, alongside Russia itself.
As the world moves into the fourth year of the war between Russia and Ukraine, it’s imperative to keep in mind that peace talks and actions taken surrounding the conflict don’t just impact the countries themselves and their leaders – they also impact the common people who live there.
Too many times have treaties, like the Treaty of Versailles signed after World War I, been designed to serve the needs and power-hungry desires of world leaders at the expense of the everyday person.
We must ensure that whatever the resolution to the Russia-Ukraine crisis is, it serves the people – not the politicians – to create a lasting peace.
