This week, International Insight brings you a special edition of geopolitical news: a world tour of responses, reactions, and ramifications to the American presidential election on Nov. 5.
The original “shot heard round the world” may have been fired almost 250 years ago at the Battle of Lexington and Concord, but American politics has continued to make reverberations felt all across the globe to this very day ‒ namely, the election of Donald J. Trump as 47th president of the United States of America.
South America —
Much of the concern in South America has to do with the global, revolving around tariffs, trade, and ties of the economic type. Later this week, global leaders will gather in Peru and meet as part of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, including current United States president Joe Biden and Chinese president Xi Jinping.
For quite a while now, trade ties between China and many South American nations, including Peru, have been growing stronger and stronger, particularly due to the perfect market China provides for the products produced by these nations, making China one of ‒ if not the ‒ most important trading partner for Peru. On the flip side, US-Peru trade, while certainly not on the decline, has taken the backseat, reducing the value of the United States as a trading partner for Peru.
Trump’s re-election may prove to widen this gap in trade relations, as he seeks to prioritize American economic growth with an “America First” platform and promises of tariffs to protect domestic industries from imports. Yet, moving away from trade relations with Peru and other South American nations and focusing more on the domestic economy may prove to be a double-edged sword, as China strengthens relations with these nations and forges economic inroads in what is widely considered to be the “backyard” of the United States.
Trump’s approach to the trade dynamics in this area may prove vital in a plethora of ways, both diplomatic and economic, and have ramifications extending beyond the cost of goods, inflation, and other economic phenomena.
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), Russia, and Ukraine —
Trump’s re-election may also change matters in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Over the course of the nearly two-year long conflict, the United States has steadily been providing aid to Ukraine. However, as Trump prepares to resume his role as president once more, many, including newly appointed NATO chief Mark Rutte, fear a potential end to this aid and other support from America.
In a speech Tuesday, Rutte emphasized the increasingly global nature of the conflict, highlighting the roles of nations like North Korea in supporting Russia, presumably in an effort to re-establish the need for continued and renewed American support of Ukraine.
Some are also calling for the admittance of Ukraine into NATO to further secure and guarantee support for the Eastern European nation. But regardless of if Ukraine is admitted into NATO or if American aid continues at the same level, Trump’s upcoming presidency will likely effect great change in terms of the events and eventual outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war, whether it be through diplomacy, actual aid, or another means.
European Union (EU) —
Trump’s re-election would also likely lead to a tremendous shift in EU policy, most of which would likely be in line with both the aforementioned actions.
As with the case in South America, Trump has promised to enact tariffs on foreign imports, in line with the ones levied on steel and aluminum during his last term. These tariffs would supposedly range from 10-20% and essentially undo the reduction in tariffs enacted by the Biden administration these past few years, potentially leading to a tariff war with the EU placing tariffs on the United States in retaliation, as has been done before.
In addition to economics, Trump’s administration would also likely enact change in EU-related defense policy, while still keeping with the president-elect’s viewpoint on American aid to Ukraine. As in the past, his administration would likely advocate for increased EU defense spending, contrasting and presenting a potential panacea to the high amounts of aid the United States is currently supplying Ukraine. Specifically, many believe that the most optimal manner to achieve this would be an EU-wide pledge to increase defense spending to 3% of the EU’s GDP.
In conclusion —
Trump’s re-election will undoubtedly usher in a wave of change, domestically and internationally, economically and politically, socially and environmentally. Yet, it is not solely the burden of the president to usher in that change; it is also the burden of the people.
America is, in the words of Abraham Lincoln, a government “of the people, by the people, [and] for the people”. It’s time that we, as the people, take those words to heart and advocate for the policies that enact the change that we want to see in our world.
