Pain au chocolat, croissants, and macarons all like to crumble.

And it seems like French president Emmanuel Macron’s administration is getting ready to do the same thing, as a looming confidence vote threatens to push France’s far-left and far-right parties together to take down centrist prime minister François Bayrou and his minority government.

The crisis started – as it always does – with the issue of money.

France’s budget deficit had grown to 5.8% of the European nation’s GDP, nearly twice the European Union’s official target of 3%. Looking down the barrel at the potential impacts of such a significant budget deficit, Bayrou took action last month to create an aggressive plan to cut 44 billion euros ($51 billion USD) in spending and preemptively reduce the 2026 budget deficit to 4.6% of GDP in an effort to keep the nation financially afloat, plans that included the cutting of two public holidays.

Needless to say, Bayrou’s plans were highly unpopular among much of the French government, sparking widespread blowback across political parties.

But things grew all the more precarious with Bayrou’s sudden declaration to hold a confidence vote on Sept. 8, two weeks before lawmakers are set to return to the office, on his plan to cut the nation’s debt, urging the French people to acknowledge the dire situation of the nation.

“When the house is burning or when you are about to sink, you have to acknowledge the situation,” Bayrou said, according to Politico. “I will not let our country sink into this risk, because it is our freedom that is at stake.”

But, it seems as if the odds will not be in Bayrou’s favor, as political parties from both sides of the aisle express their dissatisfaction with Bayrou’s government. Leaders from France’s far-right party, the National Rally, and far-left party, France Unbowed, have already made clear their disapproval of both Bayrou’s government and spending plans, promising to vote to topple the government.

Of France’s National Assembly’s 577 seats, 320 seats are occupied by left-wing and far-right lawmakers with centrists (Bayrou’s political alignment) and conservatives allied with them only holding 210, putting Bayrou at an overwhelming disadvantage as he faces the ever more likely odds of being voted out of office merely nine months after taking it in December, surviving thrice as long as his predecessor, Michel Barnier, who fell to a no-confidence motion over spending plans just over three months after his appointment.

If Bayrou’s government does indeed fall, Macron will once more be in the hot seat to fill the seat of prime minister with two options on his hands: 

• Appoint yet another individual to the office, or
• Dissolve the National Assembly and conduct a snap election to allow French voters to elect their own lawmakers – a move many believe to have the potential to create a hung parliament (a parliament in which no political party has enough seats to constitute a majority and pass legislation through) and wreak political devastation across the nation.

While the former option has already failed (as seen with the dying faith in Bayrou’s government), and Macron has seemed reluctant to consider the latter option (as of last week), Macron’s only other option would be to resign, though he has repeatedly denied considering such a move.

Regardless, the situation in France seems as delicate as a souffle; one move too early or too late, one step in the wrong direction could cause Macron’s government to fully deflate, taking not just Bayrou and Macron with it, but also the likelihood of a quick fix to France’s fraught financial situation.